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KIRKLAND, Washington (January 6, 2020) - "The buyers are out there and are showing up at open houses and making multiple offers on new listings," was how one industry leader summarized December's housing activity involving members of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
Frank Wilson, Kitsap regional manager and branch managing broker at John L. Scott Real Estate in Poulsbo, also said the severe shortage of inventory - "much lower than in years past" - will lead to continued buyer frustration and escalating home values. He noted one of his colleagues added a new listing the day after Christmas and it quickly drew 11 offers.
Newly-released figures from Northwest MLS show inventory at the end of December was down 31% from the same month a year ago, with only 8,469 active listings compared to the year-ago total of 12,275. The figures include single family homes and condominiums across the 23 counties in the MLS service area.
Last month marked the sixth straight month of declining inventory, noted James Young, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research. MLS figures show inventory peaked in June when the database had 16,680 active listings ? about twice as many as December.
Inventory for single family homes and condos (combined) was down by more than 30% in seven counties: Thurston (-54%), Pierce (-38.9%), King (-38.8%), Snohomish (-35.6%), Mason (-32%), Kitsap (-30.6%), and Skagit (-30.5%).&nbsp; System-wide there is only about 1.2 months of supply.
The inventory of single family homes (excluding condos) is especially tight in several counties, notably Thurston (-54%), King (-41.4%), Pierce (-40%), Snohomish (-36.1%), and Kitsap (-34.3%).
Robb Wasser, branch manager at Windermere Real Estate/East and NWMLS director, noted the sharp drop in King County marked the first time since March 2018 that the supply of homes dropped below one month. "Looking all the way back to 2012 when home values first began recovering, King County has only logged six months with supply levels lower than where we currently stand," he remarked.
"This market is unlike any market I've seen in the South Sound over the past 40 years. Too many buyers chasing too few properties," remarked Dick Beeson, principal managing broker at RE/MAX Northwest in Gig Harbor.
December's volume of active listings included 3,777 new listings added during the month, but during the same timeframe, 5,943 sellers accepted offers on their properties. That number of pending sales was up about 4.7% from twelve months ago.
Brokers said December is typically a slow month for home sales with holidays and historically cold, wet weather, but several MLS representatives commented on last month's surge in activity:
<ul data-rte-list="default">
<li>
"December 2019 proved to be better in just about every single category than December of 2018 - this notwithstanding weather that was not as mild as 2018, and weather typically has an impact on sales."-Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain.
</li>
<li>
"Historically low interest rates and strong job growth continue to drive the Puget Sound housing market, which is already sizzling as we begin the new decade. In the more affordable and mid-price ranges, many areas are seeing frenzied sales activity with multiple offers on most properties."-J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate.
</li>
<li>
"Home sales continued to be strong through December, fueled by low interest rates and new job creation. Hot spot locations continue to experience multiple offers on properly priced inventory."-Dean Rebhuhn, owner of Village Homes and Properties in Woodinville.
</li>
<li>
"December was one of the most active in recent years with an unusual number of ready, willing, and able buyers in the Seattle market. These buyers were competing for little inventory as the year ended."-John Deely, principal managing broker, Coldwell Banker Bain.
</li>
<li>
"December was a bit of an anomaly in the King County real estate market. Although appreciation has slowed considerably from the 14% or so annual appreciation increases that we experienced during the market frenzy years, inventory continues to get tighter. We experienced very high demand for housing." - Gary O'Leyar, designated broker/owner, Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Signature Properties in Seattle.
</li>
</ul>
Northwest MLS member-brokers recorded 7,093 completed transactions during December, a gain of more than 11% from the 6,374 closed sales of the same month a year ago. Prices on last month's closed sales of single family homes and condos rose 8.75% from a year ago. For the MLS market overall the price was $435,000 versus the year-ago figure of $400,000.
For the four-county Puget Sound region (encompassing King, Kitsap, Pierce and Snohomish counties), the median sales price for December's closed sales was $495,000, up 10% from the year-ago figure of $449,950.
In King County, which had the highest volume of sales and the highest prices, the median sales price for last month's closed sales was $615,000. That was an increase of about 3% from a year ago. Prices in King County peaked in May at $645,000.
Deely, a member of the NWMLS board of directors, reported "unusually brisk activity" in the luxury market as the year wound down, with several multimillion-dollar sales coming in all cash with less than two-week closings. Another noticeable trend he cited was foreign buyers and sellers anxious to complete buy-sell transactions before year end. "If this is any indication of the 2020 market, then we will be moving more towards the blistering market of 2017, swinging away from the more balanced market of 2019," he proclaimed.
Some brokers expect the pressure on prices to ease during the first quarter of the year as inventory improves.
"We will see increased new inventory in the 1st quarter of 2020 resulting in a better selection of homes," declared Rebhuhn, who added, "Buyers should be ready to supply sellers with prequalification letters including satisfaction of major underwriting elements."
Scott said some relief should be on the way as the weather warms up and sellers choose to put their home on the market, but he also cautioned it's possible the trend of fewer resale listings than usual will continue on the Eastside. He described the Eastside housing market as "particularly hot," adding, "It shows no sign of slowing down anytime soon with recent job growth announcements and an extreme shortage of unsold inventory priced up to $1 million."
Brokers in several counties outside of King County also commented on inventory shortages and the velocity of sales.
Frank Leach, broker/owner at RE/MAX Platinum Services in Silverdale, said Kitsap, Mason, Pierce and Jefferson counties continue to have constrained inventory, and "the market remains very competitive in all price categories." NWMLS figures show December's inventory in those four counties declined more than 35% from the selection of a year ago, while prices jumped 10.4%. Collectively, there is less than a month's supply (0.94 months) in these South Sound counties.
Leach also noted rentals are very tight with new apartments rented as soon as they are finished. Builders are "chasing the market with most of their inventory being sold before they are finished," added Leach, a member of the Northwest MLS board of directors. &nbsp;
Wilson, whose office is also in Kitsap County, said more and more of their buyers do not work in Kitsap, adding areas connected to the ferry system are seeing more and more commuters purchase homes "because we are still more affordable than King County with a much higher quality of life." He also said, "The unheard story out there is the one of many sellers who would like to sell their home but cannot find a home to buy in Kitsap."
Young said December's double-digit price increases in several counties reflect the long-term trend of increased interest along the I-5 corridor.
Looking ahead, brokers expect brisk activity.
Grady said, "With inventory below one month in King County, we can only surmise that 2020 will show a return to rising home prices as a result of the lack of inventory and continued robust job market. While buyers will continue to benefit from low interest rates, there are simply not enough homes for sale. These predictors indicate that the first quarter of 2020 will be active."
Beeson, also a member of the NWMLS board of directors, underscored the fact that new construction falls further behind the need each year. "We continuously see multiple offer situations in the median or lower prices ranges. Price creep in Pierce County continues to be above 8% year-over-year for the past three years."
"Clients often ask for our 'crystal ball' projection regarding the direction the real estate market is heading," stated O'Leyar. He tells them "Follow the employment numbers," citing State Employment Security Department reports showing the unemployment rate in King County for November 2019 was 2.3%, the lowest rate for any month measured since January 2016 and the highest employment rate since November 2017.
"The only sound reason for waiting to buy real estate in the Greater Seattle market now would be finding the suitable home versus anticipating the market to get any less challenging for buyers in the near future," O'Leyar remarked.
Northwest Multiple Listing Service is a not-for-profit, member-owned organization that facilitates cooperation among its member real estate firms. With more than 2,300 member firm offices and 30,000 brokers across Washington state, NWMLS is the largest full-service MLS in the Northwest. While based in Kirkland, Washington, its service area spans 23 counties and it operates 20 local service centers.

Market News

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KIRKLAND, Washington (June 5, 2018) - Member-brokers of Northwest Multiple Listing Service added 14,524 new listings during May, the first time that volume topped 14,000 since May 2008.
"With eyes peeled for potential shifts in a market that's felt like 'more of the same,' the recent uptick in new listings hitting the market catches my eye -- the most new listings in more than a decade," commented Robert Wasser, owner/broker at Prospera Real Estate in Seattle and an officer with Northwest MLS.
Total active listings snapped a streak of 44 months of negative numbers during May when the year-over-year comparison showed an increase of 3.8 percent. That uptick marked the first time members of Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported a gain for that statistic since August 2014.
King County has more than a month's supply for the first time since September 2017, and only the third time since October 2016. For the MLS area overall, there is 1.44 months of supply. Only four counties of the 23 counties served by Northwest MLS reported having more than four months of supply, the minimum level most industry experts use as a gauge of a balanced market.
Brokers welcomed the figures showing healthy gains in inventory, but some say they are keeping a watchful eye on rising prices and interest rates, as well as on buyer profiles, including retiring boomers.
New figures from the MLS show slight drops in both pending and closed sales, a likely consequence of persistent inventory shortages. Brokers also cite the market imbalance as a factor in rising prices: compared to a year ago, the median sales price for transactions of single family homes and condos that closed area-wide during May was $420,000, a jump of nearly 11 percent from the year ago price of $378,475.
"What we are experiencing is actually a good thing as inventory leans toward a more balanced market," remarked George Moorhead, designated broker at Bentley Properties. He also reported a shift from move-up and luxury home buyers to more first-time buyers with "a more level playing field between buyers and sellers."
Moorhead said there "never was a spring market this year" like what was experienced in the past four years. He points to rising interest rates, lack of inventory, increased home prices, frustration with presenting multiple offers without success, requirements for larger down payments, and an increase in the cost of living as reasons.
Unlike recent past years, "buyers will definitely be able to capitalize on a softer summer market this year," according to Moorhead, who noted expired listings are on the rise.
Last month's number of new listings was a significant gain from April when members added 11,271 new listings, a gain of nearly 29 percent.
"It's the best time of the year for potential home buyers," proclaimed J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. "At this time of year we always see the highest number of new listings come on the market on a monthly basis," he explained, adding, "More new listings creates more opportunity for home buyers."
Even with the improving inventory, today's market "still takes instant response as sales activity remains at a frenzy level for these new listings," Scott emphasized.
"The good news for home buyers in King County is that compared to last month, there were almost 1,000 more homes for sale," noted OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. "Hopefully," he added, "this is the beginning of a trend in which we will continue to see inventory levels improve. On the flip side, home prices in the county are up 16 percent year-over-year, which, when combined with rising interest rates, is forcing some buyers to expand their search to Pierce and Snohomish counties so they can find something they can afford to buy."
Sellers in the 23 counties served by Northwest MLS accepted offers from 12,168 buyers during May, slightly below the number from twelve months ago when pending sales totaled 12,511 (a decline of 2.7 percent). Thirteen counties reported decreases in mutually accepted offers compared to the same month a year ago, with four of them (Cowlitz, Kittitas, Okanogan, and Skagit) tallying double-digit drops.
Closed sales fell slightly, from 9,106 a year ago to 9,011, a drop of just over one percent. Ten counties reported fewer closed sales during May when compared to a year ago. A comparison to April's completed transactions shows an increase of 1,285 transactions for a gain of 16.6 percent.
Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain, said the significant increase in inventory means a slightly easier time for buyers to locate and purchase homes "for the time being." He said the broader selection enables more buyers to purchase homes regardless of escalating prices, slightly higher interest rates, and fewer cash sales involving Chinese nationals. Grady attributes the dip in Chinese activity to that country's policies making it more difficult for people to take their cash out of China.
"While there is slightly more inventory available, the market time for most listings is less than a month, and multiple-offer situations occur daily even though there may only be five offers instead of 10 or more," stated Grady.
Brokers say the continuing bidding wars are helping push prices up. Fifteen counties had double-digit price hikes for single family homes and condos (combined) from a year ago. In the four-county Puget Sound region, Snohomish County has the smallest year-over-year price gain at just under 14 percent, while Kitsap County claimed the largest jump in the region at nearly 17.2 percent.
In King County, the median sales price on all homes rose just over 16 percent, from $560,000 to $650,000. The median price for a single family home rose 14.64 percent, from $633,500 to $726,275.
The condo market showed signs of improvement with inventory growing by nearly 21.4 percent, boosted by the addition of 1,803 new listings during May (up 11.3 percent from a year ago). Even so, there is less than a month's supply system-wide.
Brokers reported slightly fewer pending sales and closed sales of condos. Year-over-year prices for condos system-wide rose nearly17.5 percent, from $315,000 to $370,000. In King County, which accounted for 55 percent of last month's condo sales, the median price of a condo that sold was $427,000, a $53,000 increase from a year ago.
For the luxury market close to job centers, Scott noted sales continue to be extremely strong, especially up to the $5 million price point, which he attributes in part to the year-over-year increase in luxury listings. Northwest MLS figures show sales of homes and condos priced at $1 million-plus are up nearly 27 percent from a year ago, rising from 557 sales in May 2017 to last month's total of 706.
As an aside, Grady suggested the recently enacted head tax in Seattle and retiring boomers will be worth watching. If jobs move from Seattle to the Eastside, workers may relocate as well, he speculates.&nbsp; Commenting on the inclination of more homeowners who are willing to list and sell at this time, he is hearing of more boomers and friends planning to move to states where housing costs less. "One good friend decided Seattle was too expensive to live in his retirement, so they're selling their 1,400 sq. ft. $600,000 home in Lynnwood and retiring in North Carolina where they purchased a 3,000 sq. ft. home for $300,000," he said adding, "It may be something to watch as our boomer population retires."
Northwest Multiple Listing Service, owned by its member real estate firms, is the largest full-service MLS in the Northwest. Its membership of more than 2,200 member offices includes more than 28,000 real estate professionals. The organization, based in Kirkland, Wash., currently serves 23 counties in the state.
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Improving Inventory Creating Long-awaited Opportunities for Buyers

MLS Market Update: December Snapshot 2017
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MLS Market Update: December Snapshot 2017

"Exceptionally low" inventory slows year-end home sales, contributes to steep price hikes around Greater Seattle region
KIRKLAND, Washington (January 5, 2018) - The year 2017 may be in the books and for many members of Northwest Multiple Listing Service it was a memorable one with December's activity being no exception. Brokers reported historic lows for inventory and year-over-year price gains in most areas.
 "I've never seen inventory this low in Kitsap County in 27 years," remarked Northwest MLS director Frank Wilson, branch managing broker at John L. Scott Real Estate in Poulsbo. That county's number of active listings last month plunged nearly 40 percent from year-ago levels. At month end, there were only 397 active listings in Kitsap County (down from the year-ago total of 659), a level Wilson described as "exceptionally low," even accounting for seasonal factors. "A normal inventory in Kitsap County used to be 1,500 to 1,700, but we have not seen this number of active listings in several years," he lamented (Northwest MLS data show the last time inventory topped 1,500 in that county was in July 2014 when there were 1,503 listings at month end). For the MLS area overall, inventory shrunk 19 percent, from 10,569 active listings at the end of 2016 to last month's figure of 8,553. That's the smallest selection for any month in the past decade. For the fourth time this year, monthly inventory dipped below the 10,000 mark, a level not reached at any other time during the 10-year comparison. Despite the paltry supply, last month's sales remained remarkably strong, with closings up slightly (0.88 percent) from a year ago. Northwest MLS members reported 7,642 closed sales, about the same volume as a year ago when completed transactions totaled 7,575. Year-over-year pending sales of single family homes and condos (combined) fell about 3 percent, from 6,390 to 6,198, but far outgained the number of new listings added to inventory (4,053). "December, which has historically been a slower month, picked up momentum and never let up," reported George Moorhead, designated broker at Bentley Properties. Unlike October through November, which he described as slower than what had been seen the past three years, "December drew aggressive buyers, some motivated by expectations of a flattening market, with others trying to beat anticipated interest rate hikes." Purchasers were from all buying demographics, noted Moorhead, a member of the Northwest MLS board of directors. Several MLS leaders commented on the consequences of depleted inventory, including OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. "While pending sales are down double digits in King County, it's not because there are fewer people buying, it's because there is far less to buy," according to Jacobi. "That's why home prices tell the true story of this market and the huge discrepancy between supply and demand. As long as this imbalance remains, prices will continue to see steep increases, just as they did in December and throughout 2017." Northwest MLS statistics show prices rose 11.4 percent system-wide for the 7,642 completed sales of homes and condos. Thirteen of the 23 counties in the report had double-digit price hikes from a year ago. Two counties reported price drops: Chelan (-11.2 percent) and Douglas (-6.5 percent). Within the Puget Sound region, King County registered the sharpest escalations at nearly 16 percent. Year-over-year prices jumped from $505,000 to $585,000. For single family homes in King County, the hike was similar (about 15.5 percent), rising from $550,000 to $635,000 at year end. Condo prices surged 28 percent in King County over the past twelve months, from $315,000 to $402,000. During the same year-over-year period, active listings fell from 346 units to 206 (down more than 40 percent), leaving only about 10 days of supply (0.35 months of inventory). System-wide, there is a little more than a month's supply (1.12 months) of homes and condos, with the shortages most pronounced in the four-county Puget Sound region. Three of those counties - King, Kitsap and Snohomish - have less than a months supply; Pierce County is somewhat better off with 1.1 months. "While all year we've been bemoaning lack of inventory and escalating prices, the statistics show 2017 was a banner year in many respects for real estate in the Puget Sound region and throughout the Northwest," stated Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain. He cited year-over-year gains in both prices and values, commenting "As a result of this strong market, homeowners are experiencing bountiful gains in property values." Brokers expect momentum to continue despite uncertainty about interest rates and taxes. J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate believes the Central Puget Sound housing market will remain one of the strongest in the nation. "It will be another happy new year for real estate activity." As the new year unfolds, he expects buyers "will emerge from winter holiday hibernation in big numbers" in part thanks to the Seahawks. "Without the Seahawks in the football playoffs, the 2018 housing market will be more intense earlier in January rather than heating up after the Super Bowl," Scott remarked. Scott also anticipates a "frenzied, multiple-offer market" in the more affordable and mid-price ranges, as well as "good-to-strong" sales activity in the luxury market close to the job centers. Positive job growth and attractive interest rates will propel activity, he suggests, adding "In the more affordable and mid-price ranges, the impact of the new federal tax policy is minimal." Wilson also believes the new tax code will not have an immediate impact on home sales in Kitsap County. "The majority of our purchasers are buying for lifestyle reasons such as a new job, transfer of job or duty station, or household size expanding or contracting."&nbsp; He suggests 2018 "will look a lot like 2017" but everything will be amplified due to the extreme shortage of active listings.&nbsp; Grady concurred. "As we look forward to 2018 we continue to believe this is a great time to buy real estate. We see only positive returns for homeowners and real estate investors this year and likely for several years to come." Moorhead anticipates aggressive buyer activity through May, but expects some short-term flattening thereafter with single-digit appreciation in the range of 5-to-7 percent. Builders still have memories of 2008, but with moderate activity and price increases likely to be sustained, "they are cautiously optimistic." Luxury buyers seem to be undeterred by the change in the mortgage interest deduction, Moorhead noted (the bill lowered the cap from $1 million to $750,000 for primary residences). He said they polled their top 30 luxury home buyers regarding the change. The most common responses were "disappointment at losing a great tax planning deduction," Moorhead reported, but added, "Those surveyed said it would not change the style of home or price point for the homes they are looking to purchase." Northwest Multiple Listing Service, owned by its member real estate firms, is the largest full-service MLS in the Northwest. Its membership of more than 2,200 member offices includes more than 26,000 real estate professionals. The organization, based in Kirkland, Wash., currently serves 23 counties in the state.
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MLS Market Update: December 2017

MLS Market Update: October Snapshot 2017
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MLS Market Update: October Snapshot 2017

Key indicators for Western Washington housing still rising, but brokers detect slowdown and uncertainty
KIRKLAND, Washington (November 6, 2017) - Early seasonal snow and questions swirling around the tax plan unveiled last week by House Republicans could make the usual seasonal slowdown more pronounced, say industry leaders from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. For October, however, key indicators trended upwards.
Pending sales rose nearly 8 percent from a year ago, closed sales were up 5.2 percent, and prices jumped about 8.2 percent, with 14 counties reporting double-digit gains. Even the number of new listings improved on the year-ago total.
Northwest MLS figures for the 23 counties it serves show members added 8,466 new listings to inventory during October, outgaining the year-ago total of 7,575 by 11.8 percent. Buyers outnumbered new listings, with 10,586 of them having their offers accepted. That number of pending sales was up nearly 8 percent from the same month a year ago.
"The challenge for buyers actually isn't lack of choice, it is the rapid pace of sales," suggested Ken Anderson, president/owner of Coldwell Banker Evergreen Olympic Realty.
"The market in Thurston County has never been better for sellers, and they're getting the message," Anderson remarked. His analysis revealed a 10-year high for sellers coming to market during October. "These savvy sellers are not waiting until spring to sell. They are taking advantage of today's great market and making their move now," he reported.
Buyers may find themselves in a quandary as the year winds down as they contemplate limited supply, possible upticks in interest rates and tax reform. Last week's announcement of a provision in a GOP tax proposal to cap the mortgage interest deduction is concerning to buyers, brokers and builders.
"Imagine if the proposed plan to cap the mortgage interest deduction at $500,000 is approved in a market that is starved for homes and where the median price [for a single family home in King County] is now $630,000," said O B Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. "Homeowners may be less likely to sell because they would be giving up their grandfathered tax credit on their current home. That's fewer homes for sale in a market where we really need them," he stated, adding, "There could also be a flood of new buyers trying to purchase before the plan is passed, adding to the already hyper-competitive market conditions."
The president of the National Association of REALTORS&reg; also weighed in, saying details are currently under review, but stated, "Eliminating or nullifying the tax incentives for homeownership puts home values and middle class homeowners at risk, and from a cursory examination this legislation appears to do just that."
Northwest MLS data show 66 percent of single family homes sold so far this year (Jan. - Oct.) in King County had selling prices of $500,000 or higher.
The median sales price system-wide for October was $373,000, up more than 8.1 percent from twelve months ago when it was $344,900. All counties in the four-county Puget Sound region notched double-digit gains.
For single family homes (excluding condos), the median sales price for last month's completed transactions was $381,000. Within King County prices are considerably higher. In Seattle, year-over-year prices jumped 17.6 percent, from $625,000 to $735,000. On the Eastside, the median price for a single family home rose 10 percent from a year ago, increasing from $768,000 to $845,000. Nevertheless, high prices did not seem to deter many house-hunters.
J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, noted October was the "best ever for sales activity in the Puget Sound region."
Northwest MLS brokers reported 7,740 pending sales in the four-county region (King, Snohomish, Pierce and Kitsap), bettering the year ago mark of 7,487 mutually accepted offers. System-wide, pending sales increased from the year-ago total of 9,805 to last month's total of 10,586 (up 7.97 percent). "With a large buyer pool for each new listing, we saw a higher percentage of new listings sell within the first 30 days of coming on the market," Scott reported, while also noting the seasonal change in housing market dynamics. "As we enter the winter market, the number of new listings being added will be in short supply from now through February," he explained.
Compared to spring months, Scott expects volumes in the next few months will be at 30-to-50 percent of spring totals. "The stage is set once again for a frenzy housing market after the first of the year in the price ranges where there is a shortage of active listings for sale."
Frank Wilson, branch managing broker at John L. Scott's Poulsbo office, also commented on supply, noting in Kitsap County, the number of active listings is down nearly 24 percent from a year ago. "What this means to Kitsap County buyers is that everything is compressed: with lower inventory and higher prices the pressure continues to build for those buyers who need to find a home."
Inventory remains low in many counties in the Northwest MLS system. Overall, there is only 1.5 months of supply of single family homes and condos combined. In King County, it's less than one month. Industry analysts say four to six months typically indicates a balanced (or "normal") market.
Most brokers agree inventory will not grow over the next few months. "Sellers who bring their homes on the market over the next three months will have a lot of interest because of the pent-up demand of buyers who are going to have fewer houses to consider," suggested Wilson.
"Homebuyers in our area are at a real disadvantage right now," commented Wilson, a member of the Northwest MLS board of directors. "They have to be pre-underwritten with their lenders, put forward a conventional or better offer, put down substantial earnest money, and hope that multiple offers do not escalate the price out of their affordability zone." He fears "more and more buyers will be sidelined."
Brokers in Snohomish County are detecting some tapering of activity.
"Buyers are no longer being as aggressive with concessions on homes when making offers and they are unwilling to compete for a home where sellers are being too aggressive with a list price," commented George Moorhead, designated broker and owner at Bentley Properties. He also noted buyers who have been on the sidelines are now more active as they see a slowdown "and an opportunity to finally own a home without the multiple offer competition."
Diedre Haines, principal managing broker-South Snohomish County at Coldwell Banker Bain in Lynnwood, believes the usual seasonal slowdown is apparent "a bit earlier than usual." She reported multiple offers are continuing but listings in Snohomish County are experiencing longer market times, fewer above-list price offers, and a noticeable increase in price reductions. "All of this puts an emphasis on how important correct, accurate pricing has become."
Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain, suggested statistics for October "at first blush suggest the lack of listings of single family homes and condos in the region is self-correcting." As an example, he notes new listings in the tri-county region (King, Snohomish and Pierce) increased 11 percent from a year ago, while year-over-year sales rose only 6 percent. "That implies the shrinking inventory of homes for sale experienced over the past couple of year may be evening out."
Looking at year-to-date figures tells a different story, according to Grady. His analysis of the three counties shows a 20 percent reduction in active listings. Factoring in strong sales yields a statistic known as months of inventory, which is under two months in the four counties comprising the Puget Sound region.
"The story continues to be in the 'commuter' counties, which are experiencing the biggest shrinkage from a year ago," said Grady. "This reduction of supply will continue to put pressure on rising prices. Bottom line: investment in a home continues to be bullish with no change in sight."
Northwest MLS board member Robert Wasser said while it may be a difficult time to be a buyer and a positive time to be a seller, the best strategy "regardless of market conditions is to calculate the pros and cons involved and make informed choices." Wasser, the owner/broker at Prospera Real Estate in Seattle, recommends working with a real estate professional who, among other topics "is equipped to discuss market conditions, financing considerations, historic trends, and buying and selling strategies."
Northwest Multiple Listing Service, owned by its member real estate firms, is the largest full-service MLS in the Northwest. Its membership of more than 2,200 member offices includes more than 26,000 real estate professionals. The organization, based in Kirkland, Wash., currently serves 23 counties in the state.
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MLS Market Update: October 2017

MLS Market Update: September Snapshot 2017
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MLS Market Update: September Snapshot 2017

MLS Brokers Detecting Seasonal Slowdown in Some Areas But Expect Price Hikes to Continue in Much of Washington
KIRKLAND, Washington (October 5, 2017) - "October will be the best month for selection and availability until late February," proclaimed J. Lennox Scott when commenting on the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
MLS figures for September show inventory reached 1.7 months of supply at the end of the month, matching the year-to-date high in February. That level is still well below the 4-to-6 months of supply that many industry analysts use as an indicator of a balanced market.
Scott said buyer intensity for new listings is higher today than a year ago. "We continue to have very strong buyer demand as the typical seasonal slowdown begins for new listings." Other industry leaders agreed seasonal adjustments are underway.
Member-brokers in the 23 counties served by Northwest MLS added 10,120 new listings to inventory during September, slightly more than the number reported for the same month a year ago (10,029). At the end of the month there were 15,888 listings of single family homes and condos in the MLS database, a drop of 12.4 percent from a year ago when buyers could choose from 18,136 listings.
"The pressure cooker for the housing market continues as the typical seasonal market comes into play for new listings coming on the market," stated Scott, the chairman and CEO of John L. Scott. He noted new listings during September and October typically shrink 30 percent - and even more during the winter months - when compared to spring and summer months.
Brokers say strong job growth statewide is fueling demand for housing. Washington has added around 83,000 new jobs from August 2016 through August 2017 (not seasonally adjusted), according to the state Employment Security Department.
Like some other months this year, pending sales last month surpassed the number of new listings, putting pressure on prices. Year-over-year median prices for homes and condos surged 12 percent.
Brokers reported 10,348 mutually accepted offers system-wide last month, about the same number as a year ago (10,370), but last month's total was the fewest pending sales since February (8,209). For the four- county Puget Sound region, members notched 7,441 pending sales. That's the third best September for this area in the past 18 years, topped only by last year's total of 7,729 and the total for August 2005 when 7,561 pending sales occurred.
Buyers may be emerging on news of slightly improving supply. "For only the second time this year the available inventory was over the one-month mark in King County," said John Deely. "A notable number of new listings went past their offer review date, and more listings had price reductions."
Deely, the principal managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain, also observed a decrease in the overall number of buyers participating in multiple offer situations. "During spring and summer it was common to see numerous offers on individual listings. Now, it's more common to see a few in multiple offer situations," Deely remarked. "This change is a predictable seasonal adjustment as buyers and sellers enjoy the warm weather." Nevertheless, Deely said the market "has the feel of a slightly slower pace."
MLS director George Moorhead also commented on seasonality. "The seasonal summer market was felt stronger this year than what we have experienced in the last three years. Market indicators are showing we are plateauing into a healthier balanced market."
Dick Beeson, principal managing broker at RE/MAX Professionals in Gig Harbor, described the market as "a wonderful adventure," saying the scarce inventory "is like a dog at the door in winter. It refuses to go away till it's fed. More houses for sale, please." For Northwest home buyers, though, Beeson expects that won't happen anytime soon.
"The entire region is off the charts," remarked Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain, referencing the latest numbers from the Case-Shiller home price index. It shows Seattle area home prices have spiked 13.5 percent in the past year, well above second place Portland with its 7.6 percent average and more than twice the national average of 5.9 percent.
Northwest MLS figures show area-wide median prices are up more than 12 percent from a year ago, rising from $340,000 to $381,000. September's figure is slightly lower than the peak reached in July when the median price across all counties was $385,000.
A snapshot of the luxury segment of homes priced at $1 million-plus further illustrates the strength of the Greater Seattle market:
<table class="mceItemTable" border="0" width="80%" cellpadding="3"><caption>Luxury Sales, Jan.-Sept., King Co. ($1M+, SFH+condo)</caption>
<tbody>
<tr dir="" lang="" align="" valign="" bgcolor="">
<td>Sales Price</td>
<td>2017</td>
<td>2016</td>
<td>2015</td>
<td>2014</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>$1 million</td>
<td>2,478</td>
<td>1,703</td>
<td>1266</td>
<td>896</td>
</tr>
<tr dir="" lang="" align="" valign="" bgcolor="">
<td>$1.5 million +</td>
<td>699</td>
<td>500</td>
<td>392</td>
<td>295</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>$2 million +</td>
<td>241</td>
<td>209</td>
<td>157</td>
<td>117</td>
</tr>
<tr dir="" lang="" align="" valign="" bgcolor="">
<td>$2.5 million +</td>
<td>300</td>
<td>215</td>
<td>181</td>
<td>135</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>TOTALS</td>
<td>3,718</td>
<td>2,627</td>
<td>1,996</td>
<td>1,443</td>
</tr>
<tr dir="" lang="" align="" valign="" bgcolor="">
<td colspan="1" rowspan="1">% change vs 2017</td>
<td colspan="1" rowspan="1">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="1" rowspan="1">41.53%</td>
<td colspan="1" rowspan="1">86.27%</td>
<td colspan="1" rowspan="1">157.66%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
 Excluding condos, the system-wide median price for September's single family sales was $390,000. A look at the 23 counties in the report shows a wide range of median prices, from the lowest of $124,000 in Ferry County to the highest, at $625,000, in King County.
September's median price for single family homes and condos in King County, at $565,000, reflects a jump of more than 14 percent from a year ago, but it is a $20,000 decline from August (down about 3.5 percent).
"While prices for single family homes and condos were up more than 14 percent annually in King County, it's hard to ignore the $20,000 price drop between August and September," said OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. "But if you look at the historic data more closely, it shows that prices have also dropped between August and September in five of the past six years, which points to a seasonal pattern rather than a long-term trend that we need to be concerned about."
Statistics are helpful for some uses, but may not always tell a complete story, cautioned one broker.
"In Snohomish County, we saw increases in the luxury (higher end) segment during the summer months, which of course raised both the median and average sales prices," said Diedre Haines, principal managing broker-South Snohomish County at Coldwell Banker Bain in Lynnwood. "Now we're seeing a decrease in those types of sales with more affordable homes becoming more dominant."
Haines also noted some reports encompass large geographic areas, such as Seattle, Everett, Tacoma and Bellevue. "When you drill down and localize the data, the picture may look quite different," she explained.
In Snohomish County, for example, Northwest MLS tracks statistics for six sub-areas within that county. Last month's median price for countywide sales of single family homes and condos was $430,000, but it ranged from $352,000 in the northwest segment of the county to $606,250 in the southeast portion. Year-over-year price changes ranged from an increase of just over 6 percent to more than 19 percent.
Noting King, Pierce and Snohomish counties all reported year-over-year price hikes of more than 14 percent, Grady said "This leap to new heights is based on high demand and low supply." He noted neighboring counties are feeling the pinch, with several of them reporting double-digit drops in supply.
"All indications are that sales price increases in these neighboring counties are likely to accelerate at an even faster rate," suggested Grady. In some of these counties, the median selling price is about half the price in King County. Faced with limited inventory and skyrocketing prices, some buyers are forced to broaden their search to these neighboring counties, Grady commented, adding he expects market forces will continue to fuel appreciation in housing into 2018 and beyond.
Moorhead, the designated broker and owner at Bentley Properties, said some renters who have been holding off are now becoming more active in hopes of taking advantage of longer market times and homes new to the market not receiving expected offers within the offer review date.
Despite some signs of a slowing market Moorhead said many renters remain frustrated, pointing to the $125,000 hike in King County's median price in just two years. "Some renters say it's like chasing a snowball down a hill that just keeps out of reach and continues to get larger and larger," he remarked.
Builders are also frustrated, according to Moorhead. "We are hearing complaints and requests from builders to expand Growth Management Area guidelines. The massive shortage of developable land makes it more difficult to create affordable housing," he explained, adding, "It's becoming commonplace for new construction prices in Seattle and the Eastside to top a million dollars."
Northwest Multiple Listing Service, owned by its member real estate firms, is the largest full-service MLS in the Northwest. Its membership of more than 2,200 member offices includes more than 26,000 real estate professionals. The organization, based in Kirkland, Wash., currently serves 23 counties in the state.
&nbsp;<img src="http://www.lakere.com/uploads/shared/images/member%20NWMLS.png" border="0" alt="" width="400" height="92" />

MLS Market Update: September 2017

MLS Market Update: August Snapshot 2017
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&nbsp;

MLS Market Update: August Snapshot 2017

August real estate activity described as both "robust" and "stagnant
KIRKLAND, Washington (Sept. 6, 2017) - As smoke and ash blanketed parts of Washington state, one real estate broker noted, "Even in a fire there are some cooler spots, and seasonally, the housing market is in a cooler spot."
The latest numbers from Northwest Multiple Listing Service show there are both cooler spots and hot spots, with the demand for housing and prices showing few signs of being extinguished.
"For August, we experienced a more robust market than anticipated," remarked Diedre Hanes, principal managing broker-South Snohomish County at Coldwell Banker Bain in Lynnwood. "Compared to years past, we've seen very limited slowdown," she added.
Pending sales area-wide during August totaled 11,867 transactions, barely exceeding the number of new listings (11,781) added during the month. At month end, there were 15,987 total active listings in the MLS database, a shrinkage of 12.8 percent from a year ago.
Sparse inventory is a likely factor in the flat pending sales, with year-over-year pending sales for all areas down .09 percent (11,867 versus 11,878). Of the 23 counties in the Northwest MLS report, 15 had fewer mutually accepted offers last month compared to twelve months ago. Last month's total was up slightly from July's figure of 11,800.
Credit the flurry of back-to-school activities and end-of summer vacations for sidetracking some sellers and buyers. "Typically, the last two weeks or so of August cool a bit and the market picks up again full steam once school resumes," said Northwest MLS director Frank Wilson.
Wilson, the branch managing broker at John L. Scott in Poulsbo, described activity as a "fast-paced seller's market," but said the "stagnant pool" is beginning to grow as sellers realize they can't overprice their homes, "even in this market." With football season getting underway he expects open house schedules to adjust around Seahawks game times, with Saturdays becoming the preferred showing day.
Gary O'Leyar, designated broker/owner of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Signature Properties, also commented on seasonal patterns. "This past summer market seems to have followed previous years' seasonal conditions. While inventory remained low, there was some change of pace from the winter-spring market," he stated.
O'Leyar said savvy buyers took advantage of slightly longer market times, affording them the opportunity for reasonable contingencies. "Although we saw multiple offers, they were down somewhat, and several offer review dates came and went with no offers by those deadlines."
Changing seasons will likely mean a drop-off in listing activity, agreed J. Lennox Scott, who was upbeat on summer sales. "It's been our best summer ever for sales activity with June, July and August clocking in a record number of transactions," said Scott, the chairman and CEO of John L. Scott. He credits strong job growth and attractive interest rates ("the lowest they've been since last November") with propelling sales.
"It's still a frenzy market in the more affordable and mid-price ranges," he said, while also noting the luxury segment continues to outpace last year's market "in a huge way."
System-wide, 3,727 single family homes have sold for more than a million dollars during the first eight months of the year, surpassing last year's total of 2,456 such sales during the same time frame - a jump of nearly 52 percent.
With further drops in inventory likely during the fourth quarter, Scott and others expect sales will continue at a quick clip.
"As we head into fall, September and October will see new listing inventory drop by about 20 percent from the summer months, so the next two months will be the best opportunity for selection and availability for buyers to purchase a home," Scott suggests. "Starting in November, the number of new listings will drop by another 30 percent over the winter," he added.
"We continue to see low inventory drive the story in the Puget Sound region," observed Mike Grady, president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain. Thirteen of the 23 counties in the MLS report had double-digit declines in inventory compared to a year ago.
Area-wide, including single family homes and condominiums, the 1.55 months of supply for August slipped from both July (at 1.62 months), and from the year-ago number of around 1.9 months. King County continued to have the tightest inventory, at 0.93 months.
Commenting on rising prices - up 8.3 percent across the MLS service area - Grady said, "Of course, that old law of supply and demand has its natural effect." The trend is consistent throughout the MLS service area, he noted, adding, "With King County prices escalating at such a fast rate (up 17 percent), the ripple effect will continue to push prices throughout the area, first in neighboring counties, then throughout the region."
"Kitsap continues to see its share of multiple offers," Wilson reported, adding, "The effects of this seller's market can be seen in the 13 percent price increase from a year ago. Also, with more attention coming to Kitsap due to the new fast ferry system there is no reason for prices to temper any time soon."&nbsp; He believes challenges for "pent up sellers" will persist "as they have no place to move once they sell their home."
"Nobody likes this market, - not sellers, not buyers, not real estate brokers," proclaimed Northwest MLS director Dick Beeson. The reasons vary, he explained. "Sellers aren't necessarily happy because they think they could be leaving money on the table. Buyers think they're paying too much. And brokers think sales are more complex and fraught with peril than previously, making them harder to close."
Beeson, the principal managing broker at RE/MAX Professionals in Gig Harbor, believes Seattle and surrounding areas are "forever changed" by this market. "The change isn't going to be painless. Housing scarcity and increasing prices are sore spots." Whether price increases will subside is anyone's guess, he added.
Prices aren't the only worry, suggested Haines. She said low appraisals occur on about one of every three sales. "The low appraisal number remains consistent at $25,000-to-$30,000 below sales price when it occurs. It makes one wonder why - coincidence or something else?" she stated.
Haines noted multiple offers are continuing, but added a note of caution to sellers: "Overpriced listings are not getting showings or offers. Buyers are well educated and well informed, which definitely eases fears of a developing bubble."
Condos offered little relief for anxious buyers. Inventory dropped nearly 25 percent from twelve months ago, but pending sales somehow managed to outgain year-ago totals (up nearly 2.9 percent). At the end of August, there was less than a month's supply of condos for sale across all areas served by Northwest MLS. King County's supply was slightly better than two weeks. Prices rose 6.7 percent overall, and were up 11.3 percent in King County, 12.6 percent in Snohomish County and 14.5 percent in Pierce County. This tri-county area accounted for nearly nine of every 10 sales.
Northwest Multiple Listing Service, owned by its member real estate firms, is the largest full-service MLS in the Northwest. Its membership of more than 2,200 member offices includes more than 26,000 real estate professionals. The organization, based in Kirkland, Wash., currently serves 23 counties in the state.
<img src="http://www.lakere.com/uploads/shared/images/trees%20NWMLS%20432w.jpg" border="0" alt="" width="432" height="101" />

MLS Market Update: August 2017

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